Donald Trump delivers a keynote speech at the Turning Point People Action Conference in Detroit on June 15
Former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 presidential election have declined dramatically, as surprising new polling data suggests a shift in momentum that could derail his bid for a second term in the White House. As Newsweek reported on Wednesday, June 19, 2024, the presumptive Republican nominee who will face incumbent President Joe Biden in a highly anticipated 2020 rematch had previously held a comfortable lead in various polls and forecasts.
However, the latest forecasts from The Economist's daily forecast model paint a very different picture, with Trump's chances of winning falling from a three-quarters chance the day before to just a two-thirds chance. The sudden revelation has caused panic in politics, with the model now predicting that Trump will receive 300 Electoral College votes, down from the previous day's forecast of 306 votes.
Conversely, Biden's chances of winning increased, with the model giving him a 1 in 3 chance of winning and predicting that he would receive 238 Electoral College votes, up from the previous day's prediction of 232 votes. The Electoral College system, which gives each state a certain number of votes based on its population, requires a candidate to reach 270 electoral votes to win, making these expected changes even more significant.
## Importance of the Electoral College
Political analyst Sarah Kendall explains that "winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success in this system," stressing the importance of the Electoral College in determining the outcome of the elections. Other polls also suggest that Trump's fortunes may be declining, raising concerns within his campaign.
An Echelon Insights poll of 1,013 voters, conducted from June 10 to 12, showed that:
* 48% of participants would vote for Biden
* 47% would vote for Trump
This is in contrast to previous polls that showed Trump with a slight lead. Kendall added: "It is expected that these debates will play an important role in shaping public opinion and may affect the outcome of the elections," referring to the upcoming debates between the candidates scheduled to take place in Atlanta on June 27.
## The Significance of Polls in the Election
As the campaign heats up and the country prepares for this high-stakes election, the daily ups and downs of polling data have become more important, with every shift in momentum potentially changing the course of the race. With the results tied, both candidates are doing their best to influence undecided voters and solidify their support base, by traveling around the country and deploying outreach strategies and targeted ads to mobilize their respective support bases.
As the country counts down to November 5, the final day that will decide who will occupy the Oval Office next, the surprising reality revealed by recent opinion polls has added another layer of mystery and uncertainty to an already tense race